A report from the Pacific Council on International Policy and the Conflict Awareness Project
The U.S.-Mexico Double Fix:
COMBATING THE FLOW OF GUNS TO TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
The U.S. and Mexico are grappling with daunting security crises stemming from the trafficking of hundreds of thousands of guns over the U.S. southern border every year. These weapons are empowering Mexican transnational criminal organizations and inflicting substantial suffering in both countries. This report underscores how reducing cross-border gun trafficking is crucial for achieving the goals of the U.S.-Mexico Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities — a bilateral security agreement announced nearly two years ago. By implementing our recommendations, the U.S. and Mexico can more effectively combat illicit gun flows, saving lives, and improving prosperity.
THE STAKES
The U.S.-to-Mexico gun trafficking fuels many of the major security challenges faced by both nations, including:
contributing to drug trafficking and abuse
undermining legitimate government authority and facilitating historic levels of armed violence in Mexico
human trafficking as record numbers of people from Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean are forced to flee their communities
ADVANCING THE AGENDA
United States:
increased prosecutorial resources
moved to curtail ghost gun proliferation
passed the landmark Bipartisan Safer Communities Act
Mexico:
created a presidential commission and a new law enforcement unit dedicated to strategic enforcement against firearms trafficking
CRITICAL GAPS
Interviews with U.S. and Mexican stakeholders made clear that there remain serious impediments to reducing U.S.-to-Mexico gun trafficking under the Bicentennial Framework. These impediments include:
constraints and limited information-sharing in relation to the tracing of recovered crime guns
weak U.S. restrictions on assault weapons and .50-caliber rifles
insufficient resources for U.S. gun dealer compliance enforcement
COUNTER-ARMS TRAFFICKING TOOLS
Effectively combating gun trafficking requires the U.S. and Mexico to avail themselves of a range of strategies:
follow-the-guns methodology — tracking recovered crime guns back through their supply chains to uncover routes, channels, and methods used in U.S.-to-Mexico gun trafficking
whole-of-government approach — requires the U.S. to create a central authority to ensure a shared strategic vision, effective prioritization, innovation, and systematic coordination
subnational participation — key for streamlining the implementation of federal programs and effecting tailored solutions that address regional challenges
export and import controls — including end-use monitoring - need to be strengthened to prevent legal U.S. gun exports to Mexico from being diverted to criminals and rogue security forces
RECOMMENDATIONS
To reduce U.S.-to-Mexico gun trafficking, both countries must address four core responsibilities:
Foster robust alignment and coordination among relevant policy, enforcement, and intelligence agencies within each nation to ensure effective binational collaboration.
Enhance forensics, data sharing, and analysis capabilities to facilitate targeted interventions against criminal networks involved in arms trafficking.
Intensify efforts to increase accountability in the U.S. gun industry and address contributing factors to arms diversion throughout the entire arms supply chain.
Robustly support preventative strategies that encourage the active participation of subnational-level actors, civil society, and the private sector.
