Testing Willpower: How China Might Target Californians’ Resolve During a Quarantine or Blockade of Taiwan
First Published in Small Wars Journal on December 9, 2025
By Joseph Leonard
US intelligence officials have assessed that President Xi Jinping has instructed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to forcibly ‘reunify’ with Taiwan by 2027. Regardless of the actual intent of this order, Beijing’s increasingly aggressive signaling over Taiwan should be taken seriously. While experts agree that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is likely to favor a low-intensity encroachment campaign meant to incrementally chip away at Taiwan’s sovereignty, the possibility of a quarantine or blockade is of major concern to US and Taiwanese officials. These actions threaten to upend the status quo in the Western Pacific and test US resolve. With its economic weight, Pacific-facing infrastructure, and concentration of military installations, California would form the American mainland’s front line in a Taiwan crisis—and a strategic target of Beijing’s attempts to weaken US willpower.
Beijing knows that if America came to Taiwan’s aid, it would be far less likely to achieve success—making the threat of US intervention a decisive deterrent. To prevent this, the PRC would reach deep into American society to weaken its resolve. With the PLA’s ‘Three Warfares’ principle—psychological, public opinion, and legal—guiding its operations, the PRC would seek to influence decision-makers, shape narratives, and advance its interests. California is acutely vulnerable across these domains: psychological operations would exploit disruption of infrastructure and economic stability, public opinion campaigns would seek to manipulate narratives and leverage social divisions, and legal justifications would frame aggression as legitimate civilian law-enforcement. Such gray-zone tactics can be obscured in ambiguity and plausible deniability, complicating conventional responses. In this uncertainty lies China’s opportunity. This article will focus on potential PRC actions against California in the opening phase of a crisis, and their implications for US resolve.
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Joseph Leonard is a Junior Fellow at the Pacific Council on International Policy. Born in London and educated between the US and UK, his interest in security issues was kindled through two years in the British Army’s University Officer Training Corps and a degree in Politics and International Relations from the University of Kent. He is currently studying Mandarin at the China Institute in NYC in preparation for language study in Taiwan next summer.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Pacific Council.
